MARKET MOVER MONITOR WEEKLY Questa settimana saranno pubblicati i verbali delle riunioni della Fed e della RBA.
Saranno messe a fuoco le riflessioni rilasciate dai membri del Consiglio della Fed della riunione del 27-28 luglio. In particolare saranno analizzati gli eventuali dettagli riferibili all’attivazione del del tapering. Il presidente della Fed Jerome Powell ha rivelato che i funzionari hanno fatto un “primo tuffo profondo” nel ridimensionamento degli acquisti di obbligazioni, tuttavia non ci sono state riferimenti sulle tempistiche. Risultano recenti gli interventi dei consiglieri che hanno rilasciato commenti da falco in merito alla revisione della strategia di linea monetaria futura. Gli ultimi dati, come l’aggiornamento NFP degli Stati Uniti della scorsa settimana, hanno spinto il dollaro USA a rafforzarsi. I verbali del FOMC della Fed della prossima settimana potrebbero offrire alcuni indizi sui pensieri della Fed in vista del Jackson Hole Policy Symposium del 26-28 agosto, dove sono attesi maggiori dettagli.
Oltre ai verbali della Fed il calendario macro offre una serie di dati economici altrettanto importanti, inclusi i dati sull’inflazione della zona euro attesa al 2,2% e del Regno Unito . La Cina rilascerà alcuni dati riferibili al mese di luglio: le vendite al dettaglio e i dati sulla produzione industriale , aggiornando anche il loro Loan Prime Rate (venerdì 20 agosto).
I sondaggi Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI di luglio hanno rivelato che le pressioni inflazionistiche hanno raggiunto un nuovo record nell’area, offrendo un’anticipazione sulle attese rispetto ai dati ufficiali. Ciò avviene anche dopo che la BoE ha recentemente rivisto al rialzo le previsioni di inflazione per il 2021 al 4% pur mantenendo una visione transitoria nei confronti dell’inflazione.
Infine, in Asia Pacifico, si terranno riunioni delle banche centrali in Nuova Zelanda e Indonesia. La Cina aggiornerà anche i dati sulle vendite al dettaglio e sulla produzione industriale per luglio.
MARKET MOVER MONITOR WEEKLY
| Date | Country | Event | Impact | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday Aug 15, 02:00 | South Korea | Trade Balance | Low | $1.76 | |
| Sunday Aug 15, 04:00 | Chile | Assumption Day | |||
| Sunday Aug 15, 15:30 | Israel | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | Low | 0.1% | |
| Sunday Aug 15, 15:30 | Israel | Consumer Price Index (YoY) | Low | 1.7% | |
| Sunday Aug 15, 22:30 | New Zealand | Business NZ PSI | Low | 58.6 | |
| Sunday Aug 15, 23:01 | United Kingdom | Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) | Low | 0.7% | |
| Sunday Aug 15, 23:01 | United Kingdom | Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) | Low | 5.7% | |
| Sunday Aug 15, 23:50 | Japan | Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) | Low | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| Sunday Aug 15, 23:50 | Japan | Gross Domestic Product Annualized | Medium | -3.9% | 0.7% |
| Sunday Aug 15, 23:50 | Japan | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | High | -1.0% | 0.2% |
| Monday Aug 16, 01:30 | China | House Price Index | Low | 4.7% | |
| Monday Aug 16, 02:00 | China | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) | Low | 12.6% | 11.3% |
| Monday Aug 16, 02:00 | China | Industrial Production (YoY) | Medium | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Monday Aug 16, 02:00 | China | NBS Press Conference | Medium | ||
| Monday Aug 16, 02:00 | China | Retail Sales (YoY) | High | 12.1% | 11.5% |
| Monday Aug 16, 03:00 | Argentina | Day of general José de San Martín | |||
| Monday Aug 16, 04:30 | Japan | Industrial Production (MoM) | Low | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Monday Aug 16, 04:30 | Japan | Capacity Utilization | Low | -6.8% | -2.1% |
| Monday Aug 16, 04:30 | Japan | Industrial Production (YoY) | Medium | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Monday Aug 16, 05:00 | Colombia | Assumption of Mary holiday | |||
| Monday Aug 16, 06:00 | Norway | Trade Balance | Low | 25.0 | |
| Monday Aug 16, 06:30 | India | WPI Inflation | Low | 12.07% | 11.3% |
| Monday Aug 16, 07:00 | Czech Republic | Producer Price Index (MoM) | Low | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Monday Aug 16, 07:00 | Czech Republic | Producer Price Index (YoY) | Low | 6.1% | 6.7% |
| Monday Aug 16, 08:00 | Turkey | Budget Balance | Low | -25.03 | |
| Monday Aug 16, 08:30 | Portugal | Consumer Confidence | Low | -17.0 | |
| Monday Aug 16, 08:30 | Portugal | Business Confidence | Low | 1.8 | |
| Monday Aug 16, 10:00 | Germany | German Buba Monthly Report | Low | ||
| Monday Aug 16, 10:00 | Israel | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) | Low | -5.8% | |
| Monday Aug 16, 11:30 | India | Trade Deficit Government | Low | $9.37 | $11.2 |
| Monday Aug 16, 12:00 | Poland | Net Inflation | Low | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| Monday Aug 16, 12:00 | Russia | Budget Fulfilment | Low | 0.7% | |
| Monday Aug 16, 12:30 | Canada | Manufacturing Sales (MoM) | Low | -0.6% | -0.3% |
| Monday Aug 16, 12:30 | United States | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | Low | 43.0 | 35.0 |
| Monday Aug 16, 12:30 | Canada | Wholesale Sales (MoM) | Medium | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Monday Aug 16, 13:00 | Russia | Unemployment Rate | Low | 4.8% | 4.7% |
| Monday Aug 16, 15:30 | United States | 3-Month Bill Auction | Low | 0.05% | |
| Monday Aug 16, 15:30 | United States | 6-Month Bill Auction | Low | 0.05% | |
| Monday Aug 16, 17:00 | Indonesia | Independence Day | |||
| Monday Aug 16, 19:00 | Argentina | Consumer Price Index (MoM) | Low | 3.1% | |
| Monday Aug 16, 20:00 | Argentina | Tax Revenue (MoM) | Low | 922.85 | |
| Monday Aug 16, 20:00 | United States | Total Net TIC Flows | Low | $105.3 | $75.9 |
| Monday Aug 16, 20:00 | United States | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | Low | $-30.2 | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 01:30 | Australia | RBA Meeting Minutes | High | ||
| Tuesday Aug 17, 04:30 | Japan | Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) | Low | -2.7% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 05:00 | Finland | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | Low | 9.0% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 06:00 | Romania | Gross Domestic Product | Low | -0.2% | 14.5% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | Medium | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 06:00 | United Kingdom | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | Medium | 6.6% | 7.4% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Rate | Medium | 5.8% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 06:00 | United Kingdom | Claimant Count Change | High | -114.8 | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 06:00 | United Kingdom | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) | High | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 07:00 | Hungary | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | Low | -2.1% | 17.1% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 07:00 | Slovakia | Gross Domestic Product Prelim (YoY) | Low | 0.3% | 11.1% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 07:00 | European Monetary Union | EcoFin Meeting | Medium | ||
| Tuesday Aug 17, 07:30 | Netherlands, The | Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) | Low | -2.4% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 07:30 | Netherlands, The | Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) | Low | -0.8% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 07:30 | Netherlands, The | Consumer Spending Volume | Low | 8.8% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 08:40 | Spain | 9-Month Letras Auction | Low | -0.555% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 08:40 | Spain | 3-Month Letras Auction | Low | -0.618% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 09:00 | European Monetary Union | Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) | Low | 13.6% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 09:00 | European Monetary Union | Construction Output s.a (MoM) | Low | 0.9% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 09:00 | European Monetary Union | Employment Change (YoY) | Low | -1.8% | -2.0% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 09:00 | European Monetary Union | Employment Change (QoQ) | Low | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 09:00 | European Monetary Union | Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) | High | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 09:00 | European Monetary Union | Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) | High | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:15 | Canada | Housing Starts s.a (YoY) | Low | 282.1 | 270.0 |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:30 | Canada | Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities | Low | $20.79 | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:30 | Canada | Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities | Low | $10.65 | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:30 | United States | Retail Sales (MoM) | High | 0.6% | -0.2% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:30 | United States | Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) | High | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:30 | United States | Retail Sales Control Group | High | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:55 | United States | Redbook Index (YoY) | Low | 16.2% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 12:55 | United States | Redbook Index (MoM) | Low | -17.2% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 13:15 | United States | Industrial Production (MoM) | Low | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 13:15 | United States | Capacity Utilization | Low | 75.4% | 75.7% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 14:00 | New Zealand | GDT Price Index | Low | -1.0% | -0.3% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 14:00 | United States | Business Inventories | Low | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 14:00 | United States | NAHB Housing Market Index | Low | 80.0 | 80.0 |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 16:00 | Colombia | Gross Domestic Product (YoY) | Low | 1.1% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 20:30 | United States | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | Low | -0.816 | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 21:00 | New Zealand | REINZ House Price Index (MoM) | Medium | 0.9% | |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 22:45 | New Zealand | Producer Price Index – Output (QoQ) | Low | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 22:45 | New Zealand | Producer Price Index – Input (QoQ) | Low | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 23:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders (MoM) | Low | 7.8% | -2.8% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 23:50 | Japan | Machinery Orders (YoY) | Low | 12.2% | 15.8% |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 23:50 | Japan | Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance | Low | ¥-90.2 | ¥-23.1 |
| Tuesday Aug 17, 23:50 | Japan | Exports (YoY) | Medium | 48. |
